Latest in COVIDView: US lagging in control, surging in cases

(Blog initially published on my LinkedIn profile https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/latest-covidview-us-lagging-control-surging-cases-tom-frieden/)

Here’s where we are in the US with Covid now. This is based on CDC’s latest COVIDView report, Covid Exit Strategy and other sources.

It’s clear the US does not have COVID-19 under control. Virus is surging, and our response remains fragmented. Only the Northeast is at all reassuring, and those gains are at risk. Reopening schools and restoring our economy are getting much harder.

blog0714im1.png

Test positivity across the US is up to 9.2%. The South Central region is at 17%! See the interesting trends from commercial labs in this graph below. It shows the first decrease in positivity among young adults in 2 months...and now positivity is increasing in older adults. As predicted, what started in young adults didn’t stay in young adults.

blog0714im2.gif

We should be seeing testing rates by race and ethnicity—and all tests results must come back quickly. Tests that take more than 48 hours to come back are of little value.

Influenza-like and Covid-like illness visits to emergency departments are rising in 7 of 10 US regions.

Native American, Black, Latinx and other communities continue to be disproportionately affected. They’re more exposed, have more underlying conditions and undertreated illnesses, and also have less access to care. Community engagement, empowerment, and leadership is crucial for progress.

Covidview deaths are below the epidemic threshold, but how long will that last? Overall US deaths are now rising.

blog0714im3.png

Deaths are rising most in the South, Southwest, and West, offsetting the decline in New England, Mid-Atlantic, and Midwest. And this is before young adults spread to lots of older and vulnerable people. The next one to two months will be worse, unfortunately.

blog0714im4.png

  States with the highest Covid burden are least able to test and trace right now.

blog0714im5.png

 The situation will get worse before it gets better. Where Covid is spreading and in most of the US it will be essential to close restaurants and bars, stop gatherings of more than a few people, and box the virus in through strategic testing, effective isolation, rapid contact tracing, and supportive quarantine. We all must follow the 3 W’s—wear a mask, wash your hands, watch your distance. 

Otherwise, there’s little hope of safely opening schools, no matter what anyone says.